Ørsted A/S

This is a specific, quantified, past-tense reduction claim — not an aspirational pledge — and the evidence base overwhelmingly supports its directional accuracy. The EU ETS installation data, the highest-quality independently verified emissions ground truth available, shows Ørsted's core generation assets falling by 68–100% in absolute terms since 2013, with the two largest installations (DK_71, DK_80) falling to near-zero or zero by 2025. While ETS data cannot directly confirm the specific "98% intensity" figure (intensity is a per-unit-of-output metric, not directly reported to EUTL), the scale and consistency of the absolute decline make a 98% intensity reduction highly plausible.

Five of five queried supporting sources — LobbyMap, SBTi, GCPT, EGT and E-PRTR — corroborate the reduction narrative, and none of the fifteen evidence records contradict the claim. GCPT confirms coal is fully retiring, meaning the reduction is structural (asset divestment) rather than an accounting artifact. LobbyMap's "B" rating rules out the most common contradiction pattern in Prasine assessments: supportive public claims paired with obstructive lobbying. This claim is not a repeat of a prior assessment (0 of 9 prior Ørsted claims were repeats; company score trend is STABLE).

The residual uncertainty driving the score toward the top of the SUBSTANTIATED band, rather than the bottom, is twofold: (1) the source document returned HTTP 403, preventing direct verification of the stated baseline year and intensity-calculation methodology; and (2) intensity metrics can diverge from absolute figures if output volumes have grown faster than emissions have fallen — a scenario not contradicted by available data but also not fully ruled out.

(b) Green Claims Directive (enforcement from September 2026): Under GCD mandatory substantiation requirements, this claim would require independent verification of the underlying intensity calculation (denominator/output basis, baseline methodology) — not merely of directional trend. The claim appears substantively well-supported and directionally verifiable via ETS and E-PRTR data, but full GCD-readiness cannot be confirmed until Ørsted's methodology documentation is accessible (currently blocked by a 403 error). The claim is likely to withstand GCD scrutiny on substance, but the company should ensure the underlying calculation methodology is publicly documented and third-party assured ahead of the September 2026 enforcement date.